In the News · Politics · US
Midterms 2026: The Five Numbers That Will Decide Who Runs Congress
Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November. Democrats lead the national polls and early voting has broken the midterm record, but the Senate map still favours Republicans.
Published Nov. 2, 2026, 06:00 GMT
Last updated: 2 Nov 2026References
The short version
On Tuesday 3 November, voters choose all 435 members of the House of Representatives, 35 senators (including special elections in Florida and Ohio for the seats once held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance), 36 governors and 145 statewide ballot measures. Republicans hold the Senate 53-47. To win control, Democrats need a net gain of 3 House seats and 4 Senate seats.
Five numbers to watch
- 52-45. Democrats' lead on which party voters want running Congress, in the NBC News poll of 1,000 registered voters taken 28-30 October (margin of error 3.1 points). Independents favour Democrats by 21 points.
- 40%. President Trump's approval rating in the same poll, with 60% disapproving, the highest disapproval NBC has recorded across both of his terms.
- 52 million. Early votes already cast, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. That is a midterm record, ahead of roughly 46 million in 2022.
- 26.5. The average number of House seats the president's party has lost in midterms since 1946. History is not destiny, but it is the baseline both parties are working against.
- 5 and 11. The Senate and House races NBC's Decision Desk rates as toss-ups. Control of each chamber will come down to these.
Where the Senate fight is
New York Times/Siena polling published this week shows Democrats ahead in several states Republicans normally win, including Texas, Kansas and Alaska. In Maine, Graham Platner leads Senator Susan Collins 51-45. In Ohio, Sherrod Brown leads Jon Husted 49-44. Iowa is tied. Polls are snapshots with margins of error, and several of these leads sit inside them.
The economy is the backdrop
About three in four voters told NBC they are dissatisfied with the economy, and 51% are dissatisfied with their own finances, the first time that has happened in 30 years of NBC polling. Seven in ten say the country is heading in the wrong direction. Neither party is popular: Democrats have a 29% favourable rating, Republicans 38%. In the final days, President Trump has promised $5,000 payments if Republicans keep control, according to AFP.
What it means for you
- If you have not voted yet: polls are open on Tuesday. Check your polling place and ID rules with your state or county election office, not social media.
- If you mailed a ballot: most states let you track it on the election office website.
- On election night: close races can take days to count, especially where mail ballots arrive late. A slow count is normal, not a sign of fraud.
What we don't know yet
Whether the early-vote record means higher turnout overall or simply earlier voting by people who would have voted anyway. Analysts are split, and the answer will only be clear once the full count is in.
How we wrote this: our staff read the reporting listed below, checked the facts against more than one source where possible, and wrote this piece in our own words. Anything not confirmed is labelled. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
