In the News · Money · Australia
A Melbourne Cup Day Rate Rise Looks Likely. Here Is What It Would Cost Your Mortgage
The Reserve Bank announces its decision at 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November. After inflation jumped to 4.3%, markets see about a 90% chance the cash rate rises from 4.60% to 4.85%.
Published Nov. 2, 2026, 06:03 GMT
Last updated: 2 Nov 2026References
What is happening
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board meets on Melbourne Cup Day, Tuesday 3 November, and announces its decision at 2:30pm AEDT (03:30 UTC). The cash rate is 4.60% after four rises this year, in February, March, May and late September. It was 3.60% at the end of 2025. Money markets price roughly a 90% chance of a fifth rise, to 4.85%.
Why a rise looks likely
- Inflation went the wrong way. The consumer price index rose 4.3% in the year to September, up from 4.0% in August.
- Underlying inflation beat the RBA's own forecast. The trimmed mean rose 1.0% in the September quarter, against the 0.8% the RBA expected in August. The monthly measure puts it at 3.6% a year.
- Big costs are climbing. Housing costs rose 5.2% and fuel 9.4% in September.
- The RBA has signalled concern. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said on 21 October the inflation picture was "materially worse".
The job market is cooling, which is the main argument for waiting: unemployment was 4.7% in September and employment fell by 39,300.
What it would cost you
A 0.25 percentage point rise adds roughly $16 to $17 a month for every $100,000 owed on a 30-year principal-and-interest loan, using Cinch Loans' calculator. As a guide:
| Loan | Extra a month (approx.) |
|---|---|
| $400,000 | $64 to $68 |
| $600,000 | $96 to $102 |
| $800,000 | $128 to $136 |
Your bank sets the actual change and the date it starts, usually within a few weeks of the decision. Your loan type, rate and remaining term change the figure.
What economists expect next
CommBank's Belinda Allen switched her call to a November rise; ANZ said the inflation data "cements the case". Westpac's Luci Ellis sees no further rises after November as the base case, and Betashares' David Bassanese expects a rise now and a hold at the next meeting on 7-8 December.
What you can do this week
- Check your loan's current rate against what new customers are offered. If the gap is big, ask your lender for a better rate before the rise lands.
- If you have an offset account, money sitting in it reduces the interest you pay.
- Savers: banks often pass rises on to savings accounts more slowly. Compare bonus-rate conditions before you switch.
What we don't know yet
The decision itself. A 90% market price is not a certainty, and the RBA has surprised markets before. We will not report the outcome until it is announced.
How we wrote this: our staff read the reporting listed below, checked the facts against more than one source where possible, and wrote this piece in our own words. Anything not confirmed is labelled. Spotted a mistake? Tell us.
